Australia’s 2025 Property Outlook: Cutting Through the Noise with Simon Pressley
As the new year rolls in, property investors across the country are asking the same question: Where is the market heading in 2025? Amid the usual media noise, shifting sentiments, and “hotspot” hysteria, it’s refreshing—and rare—to hear from someone who doesn’t just make predictions, but holds themselves accountable for them.
In our first Australian Property Investment Podcast episode of the year, Aaron Christie-David sat down with Simon Pressley, Head of Research at Propertyology, Hall of Famer, and one of the most respected voices in real estate, for an honest, evidence-backed breakdown of what’s happening in the property market—and what’s coming. Watch the full episode here.
Looking Back: How Simon’s 2024 Predictions Held Up
Before diving into the 2025 outlook, we revisited Simon’s 2024 forecasts, which he boldly published a year ago. His projections weren’t based on vibes or media headlines, but on deep research into economic fundamentals, housing supply and demand, and buyer behaviour.
Here’s how Simon’s predictions compared to actual performance (based on CoreLogic data):
City | Simon’s Forecast | Actual Growth (2024) | Verdict |
Perth | 13% – 18% | 19.1% | ✅ Nailed it |
Brisbane | 9% – 13% | 11% | ✅ On point |
Adelaide | 8% – 12% | 13% | ✅ Close |
Sydney | 3% – 7% | 2% | ⚠ Slight miss |
Melbourne | 0% – 3% | -3% | ❌ Miss |
Canberra | 1% – 2% | ~1% | ✅ Accurate |
Darwin | 3% – 6% | <1% | ❌ Miss |
Hobart | 2% – 4% | -1% | ⚠ Slight miss |
With most cities falling squarely within or near his forecast ranges, Simon’s track record is hard to ignore. But more importantly, he doesn’t just get the numbers right—he explains why the market behaves the way it does.
“People Overthink the Interest Rates”
Right off the bat, Simon reminded us of a key principle that too many forget: you can’t control interest rates.
“I say to my clients, property’s a long-term game. Rates are going to go up and down a dozen times over your investment lifetime. So why waste time trying to predict the RBA’s every move?”
This long-term perspective is what separates seasoned investors from reactive ones. As Simon puts it, too many people burn energy on micro-movements when they should be focused on macro trends and structural fundamentals.
Why Perth Boomed (and Why He Still Didn’t Buy There)
While Perth topped the nation with nearly 20% growth last year, Simon and his team didn’t buy there—on purpose.
Why?
Because risk isn’t about location size or popularity—it’s about economic volatility. Perth, he explained, is Australia’s most volatile property market, largely due to its heavy reliance on mining royalties. When commodity prices fall, so does state revenue, impacting jobs, infrastructure spending, and ultimately buyer confidence.
Instead of chasing short-term booms, Simon focuses on sustainable performance over the long haul. His approach is a masterclass in long-term thinking: don’t just buy the hype—buy the fundamentals.
Melbourne’s Harsh Reality: A Decade of Doldrums?
When asked whether Melbourne’s downturn represents a buying opportunity, Simon didn’t hold back.
“Anyone investing in Melbourne now is either operating on unhealthy confirmation bias or wishful thinking,” he said.
Despite record-breaking population growth from overseas migration, Melbourne has become Australia’s worst-performing property market over the past five years. The issues? Poor economic management, high state debt, restrictive rental legislation, and heavy taxes. His message was clear: don’t confuse affordability with opportunity.
The Secret Sauce: Local Economic Performance
Simon’s research process is relentless. While many obsess over interest rates or population data, Propertyology’s methodology hinges on one key driver:
“Local economic performance is always the biggest influence on property market performance.”
That means diving into local job creation, infrastructure projects, council planning, supply pipelines, and even business expansion announcements—none of which make it into flashy headlines.
It’s slow, unglamorous work. But it’s also the difference between speculative investing and informed decisions.
The Case for Townsville (and the 2025 Stars to Watch)
Simon’s 2025 report looked at 25 of Australia’s largest cities, forecasting double-digit growth in 11 of them. His boldest call? Townsville, with an anticipated growth of up to 30% this year.
He points to major infrastructure investment, a diversified economy (health, defence, education, logistics), and a severe housing shortage as the key drivers behind its momentum.
That said, he reminds investors that these aren’t blanket recommendations:
“Out of the 25 cities we profiled, we’re only actively buying in two of them. The rest of our work is in other, lesser-known markets you’ve probably never considered.”
The Problem with “Yield Chasing”
One theme that came up repeatedly: the trend toward yield-chasing. With interest rates high, many investors are looking to squeeze every dollar by turning to:
- Dual occupancies
- Rooming houses
- Granny flats
While the cash flow might seem attractive, Simon cautions against sacrificing long-term capital growth.
“If you want a great return, you need an asset that the biggest number of future buyers will want. Seven out of ten buyers are families. And families don’t want a duplex, rooming house, or a house with a concrete box out the back.”
It’s a clear message: play the long game. Invest in quality assets that appeal to owner-occupiers, not just for today’s rent, but for tomorrow’s capital growth.
The Best Time to Buy?
Simon’s take is refreshingly simple:
“The best time to invest is the moment you can afford to. If you wait for perfect timing, you’ll miss years of growth.”
In a time where headlines shout doom and gloom one day and boom the next, Simon’s grounded, fact-based outlook is a much-needed anchor.
Key Takeaways
✅ Don’t chase trends—chase fundamentals
✅ Local economies drive markets, not interest rates or hype
✅ Capital growth beats cash flow gimmicks over the long term
✅ Diversify across cities and states—don’t double down on where you live
✅ Property markets don’t “bounce”—don’t wait for your city to “be due”
Ready to Start Your 2025 Property Journey?
Whether you’re sitting on the sidelines or looking to grow your portfolio, now’s the time to lean into long-term thinking and surround yourself with the right people.
📥 Download the 2025 Market Outlook from Propertyology
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Let’s make 2025 your year of confident, considered investing. Contact us today.
