What Most Experts Will Get Wrong About the 2025 Property Market – A Masterclass with Michael Yardney
As the Australian property market heads into a new phase, investor sentiment is shifting—but confusion remains. With rate cuts finally on the table, political noise getting louder, and headlines declaring everything from a housing crash to a new boom, many buyers are asking the same question:
“What should I do next?”
In Episode 201 of the Australian Property Investment Podcast, Aaron Christie-David sits down with one of the most trusted voices in the industry—Michael Yardney—to unpack exactly that.
Michael’s no stranger to long-term investing. With over five decades of property experience, a blog ranked among the top 50 worldwide, and an empire that spans residential, commercial, and development assets, he offers a rare combination of insight, data, and lived experience.
Here’s what they uncovered—and why 2025 may look very different to what the so-called experts are predicting. Watch the full episode here.
“Most Predictions Will Be Wrong” – Why You Shouldn't Trust the Forecasts
Michael opens with a strong statement: most predictions will be wrong.
It’s not that experts don’t have the tools. They’ve got access to interest rate models, population data, housing supply pipelines, and macroeconomic forecasts. But they’re missing the one variable that changes everything: human behaviour.
“Investor sentiment is what really moves the market—and it’s impossible to quantify.”
Michael argues that while it’s easy to track things like wage growth or building approvals, it’s far harder to predict how confident Australians will feel in 3, 6, or 12 months’ time. And yet, it’s that confidence that drives action. Buyers don’t wait for the perfect rate—they act when they feel safe.
In short? Don’t wait for the experts to call the bottom or the top. They’re usually wrong. Instead, build a plan that allows you to move with confidence, regardless of where the market’s at.
“Predicting Rain Doesn’t Count—Building an Ark Does”
In a line that sums up his whole philosophy, Michael says:
“Predicting rain doesn’t count—building an ark does.”
What he means is this: market ups and downs are inevitable. The smart investors aren’t the ones who try to time every rise or fall—they’re the ones who build resilience into their portfolios. That means:
- Having buffers
- Investing in quality locations
- Choosing assets that grow and cashflow
- Planning for rate hikes, not just cuts
At Atelier Wealth, we’ve always championed this strategic approach. Rate cuts and lending tweaks might spark a short-term surge, but your long-term success depends on having the right structures and a portfolio built to withstand the storms.
Confidence is the Real Catalyst for Growth
Following the first RBA rate cut since 2020, confidence has started to creep back into the market. And while the financial benefits of a 0.25% drop might seem small, the psychological shift is significant.
“It’s not the rate cut—it’s what the rate cut signals,” Aaron explains.
Michael agrees. With each policy move—whether it’s loosening of APRA’s buffers, government incentives, or rate cuts—more Australians feel ready to act. Not because their borrowing power suddenly doubles, but because they’re no longer frozen by fear.
This is how markets turn. Not overnight. Not with a headline. But with a slow, steady return of confidence.
Where Is Michael Investing in 2025?
Let’s be clear—Michael doesn’t chase hotspots. He doesn’t gamble on speculative mining towns or chase short-term yield. His strategy is timeless: buy in gentrifying, middle-ring suburbs in major capital cities, where demographic trends support long-term growth.
His picks include:
- Sydney: Family-friendly homes and modern apartments (not high-rise) in middle-ring suburbs with strong infrastructure. Think inner west terraces and areas within 10–12 km of the CBD.
- Melbourne: South-eastern suburbs east of Warrigal Road—not Hawthorn or Toorak, but nearby areas still affordable and attractive to professionals.
- Brisbane: Homes in established suburbs on either side of the river. Michael sees more value in houses here, noting Brisbane buyers are still warming up to apartment living.
“Don’t buy in the cheapest areas,” he warns. “Buy in locations where tenants have the capacity to pay more rent over time.”
Affluent renters, dual-income households, and lifestyle-friendly suburbs are where your cash flow and capital growth will align.
Why Election Noise Shouldn’t Derail Your Plans
As we head toward another federal election, some buyers are pausing their property plans. But Michael sees this as a mistake:
“Businesses don’t wait. Life doesn’t wait. Why should you?”
Unless a party is proposing a significant tax overhaul (like Labor’s capital gains tax shakeup in 2019), there’s little reason to let politics put your future on hold. And the truth is, most election policies are more rhetoric than reality.
Waiting “just to see” often results in missed opportunities—and buyers who sat out the last cycle know this all too well.
Sentiment + Serviceability = The Market Flywheel
The discussion turns to how market momentum really builds. It’s not one thing—it’s the flywheel effect.
- Rates drop slightly.
- Confidence lifts.
- Buyers enter.
- Demand increases.
- Prices creep up.
- Lenders loosen buffers.
- More buyers jump in.
And the cycle builds. That’s why, as Aaron points out, the real price surges come not when rates fall, but when lending policy changes allow more buyers to act.
That’s the “horse bolting” moment.
The Two-Business Mindset: Income + Assets
Michael shares a concept that every investor should embrace:
“You need two businesses: one for cash flow, one for capital growth.”
- Your cashflow business is your job, business, or profession. It funds your lifestyle and allows you to invest.
- Your capital growth business is your property portfolio. Over time, it becomes the vehicle for financial freedom.
But here’s the kicker: most people ignore the first and obsess over the second.
“The more you earn, the more you can invest. You are your greatest asset,” says Aaron.
Want to build wealth faster? Don’t just pick better properties—build a stronger income. Invest in your career, business, or side hustle so you can buy better assets sooner.
Property Investing is a Process, Not an Event
Too many people think buying a property is the strategy. Michael flips this.
“Buying a property is not a plan. It’s just one part of the plan.”
The real wealth-building journey includes:
- A clear loan strategy: structure, buffers, borrowing power.
- A tailored property strategy: buy the right type of property for your goals.
- A risk management plan: insurance, structures, and diversification.
- A strong alignment between partners: so everyone’s on the same blueprint.
Aaron notes: couples who don’t align on their financial strategy often get stuck, because one person is pushing while the other is catching up. Your success in property hinges on having clarity together.
Don’t Overlook Risk Management
This part hits home.
Most investors will insure their car, but not their own income. Michael warns this is short-sighted.
“If you earn $200k a year, that’s $4 million over 20 years. That’s your real asset—protect it.”
At Atelier Wealth, we’ve seen firsthand how important insurance, structures, and strategy are as portfolios grow. Risk isn’t just about the market falling. It’s about job loss, health shocks, or partnership breakdowns derailing your future.
“Your insurance needs to reflect your level of sophistication and debt,” Aaron adds.
This is especially critical as your income grows, your equity increases, and your dependents (kids, business, aging parents) increase too.
Most Investors Get It Wrong—Here’s How You Can Get It Right
Michael doesn’t sugarcoat the stats:
- 50% of property investors sell within 5 years.
- 92% never get past their second property.
Why? No strategy. No support. No patience.
“Don’t do what most investors do. If you follow the herd, you’ll get herd results.”
The ones who succeed?
- Have a clear plan.
- Work with independent advisors.
- Focus on long-term value, not short-term noise.
Invest in education and mentorship, not just properties.
Property is a Game of Finance
If there’s one message to walk away with from this episode, it’s this:
“Property is a game of finance—with some houses thrown in the middle.”
The winners aren’t the ones who chase the next shiny suburb or try to time the bottom. They’re the ones who understand the numbers, master the strategy, and keep showing up year after year.
And in a market like 2025—filled with headlines, uncertainty, and noise—that’s never been more important.
Ready to Invest With Confidence?
Whether you’re just getting started or already have a property portfolio, we’re here to help.
At Atelier Wealth, we help you: ✅ Get crystal clear on your borrowing power
✅ Build a strategy that suits your goals
✅ Select the right property for your life stage
✅ Protect your income and assets with the right structures
📞 Contact us to book a strategy session with our lending experts.
